USD/JPY bias flipped 3 times to weak bullish on August 30, 2026
Trading in USD/JPY is being driven by shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations. While one headline points to rising odds of a September rate increase, another notes that the probability of a rate cut jumped after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's latest remarks. These mixed signals on the path of U.S. interest rates are key for the dollar-yen pair.
Updated
The reading that day
Weak bullishAt the close of the UTC day.
BearishNeutralBullish
It changed 3 times during the day.
The day on the wire
00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00
The band shows the reading through the day; a mark shows where it changed. Each tick is a headline first seen that day.
The reading through the day
- 00:00Neutral
- 21:55Weak bullish
- 22:51Neutral
- 23:15Weak bullish
Headlines (20)
First seen on August 30
- Fedwatch Turns Hawkish With 57% Odds of September Rate IncreaseBitcoin.com News
Carried over from earlier days
- FX Daily: Keeping an eye on the long endING Think
- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?InvestingLive
- Japan Spent Record $98.7 Billion to Prop Up Yen in Past MonthThe Wall Street Journal
- Kickstart Kevin Warsh speech day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSDInvestingLive
- How will Warsh influence the technicals for USD vs some of the major currenciesInvestingLive
- The USD has moved higher on more hawkish Fed Chair WarshInvestingLive
- Fed chair says delivering ‘stable prices’ is central bank’s job as inflation persistsThe Guardian
- Warsh guides forward without forward guidanceING Think
- Investors Expect Higher Rates After Fed Chairman’s Inflation PledgeThe New York Times
- USDJPY jumps above its 100 day MA and makes a break for it.InvestingLive
- US Fed chair warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikesAl Jazeera
- Non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions trimmed employment by 79K jobsInvestingLive
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh triggers a $488 million crypto liquidation cascade as rate-hike expectations riseCryptoSlate
- U.S. Stocks Fall After Warsh Speech Boosts Bond YieldsThe Wall Street Journal
- Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke today and the odds of an interest-rate cut rose double digits. Plus, Hegseth summoned the military’s top brass for a meeting and Russians got a little taste of direct democracy. Read more in today’s What’s News newsletter.The Wall Street Journal
- Kevin Warsh spoke – what did we learn? With Torsten SlokFinancial Times
- September 2026 Monthlymarctomarket.com
- Russian strike on a munitions depot triggers deadly blasts near KyivAl Jazeera
- Warsh charts a forward-looking path for the Fed at Jackson HoleFinancial Times
Scheduled events
As of
| Event | Forecast | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday, August 30 | ||
| Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -0.7% | JPY |
| Retail Sales y/y | 3.2% | JPY |
| Monday, August 31 | ||
| Housing Starts y/y | 7.5% | JPY |
| Capital Spending q/y | -0.2% | JPY |
| Tuesday, September 1 | ||
| Final Manufacturing PMI | 55.1 | JPY |
| 10-y Bond Auction | JPY | |
| Consumer Confidence | 35.3 | JPY |
| FOMC Member Barr Speaks | USD | |