US Dollar Index bias turned bullish on August 30, 2026
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments at Jackson Hole have shifted market expectations, with Fedwatch now pricing a 57% chance of a September rate increase. Additionally, a large Treasury issuance week has pushed 10-year yields to 4.73%, and fading debasement fears are also in play. These factors are currently driving the U.S. dollar index.
Updated
The reading that day
BullishAt the close of the UTC day.
BearishNeutralBullish
It changed once during the day.
The day on the wire
00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00
The band shows the reading through the day; a mark shows where it changed. Each tick is a headline first seen that day.
The reading through the day
- 00:00Neutral
- 21:23Bullish
Headlines (15)
First seen on August 30
- US Government Sold $797 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.73%, 30-Year Yield 5.22%wolfstreet.com
- Fedwatch Turns Hawkish With 57% Odds of September Rate IncreaseBitcoin.com News
Carried over from earlier days
- FX Daily: Keeping an eye on the long endING Think
- US stocks reverse and fall to the lows of the day as the hawkish message registersInvestingLive
- Gold price drops as Warsh warns Fed still has ‘work to do’ on inflationMining.com
- US Fed chair warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikesAl Jazeera
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh triggers a $488 million crypto liquidation cascade as rate-hike expectations riseCryptoSlate
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 28 AugInvestingLive
- U.S. Stocks Fall After Warsh Speech Boosts Bond YieldsThe Wall Street Journal
- Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke today and the odds of an interest-rate cut rose double digits. Plus, Hegseth summoned the military’s top brass for a meeting and Russians got a little taste of direct democracy. Read more in today’s What’s News newsletter.The Wall Street Journal
- The Weekly Bottom Line: A Hawkish Assessment, Still No Forward GuidanceActionForex
- Dollar Gets Two Warsh Boosts: Earlier Fed Hike Risk and Fading Debasement FearsActionForex
- September 2026 Monthlymarctomarket.com
- Warsh charts a forward-looking path for the Fed at Jackson HoleFinancial Times
- Bessent On Bonds; Warsh On InflationGold Eagle
Scheduled events
As of
| Event | Forecast | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday, August 30 | ||
| G20 Meetings | All | |
| Retail Sales y/y | 3.2% | JPY |
| Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -0.7% | JPY |
| Monday, August 31 | ||
| MI Inflation Gauge m/m | AUD | |
| ANZ Business Confidence | NZD | |
| Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | CNY |
| Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | CNY |
| Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.7% | AUD |