GBP/USD bias held neutral on August 16, 2026
Recent headlines highlight inflation and interest-rate considerations for both the US and UK. Morgan Stanley notes disinflation but sees risks to the 2027 rate outlook, while another report suggests AI inflation could pressure the Fed into higher rates. In the UK, soaring energy bills are forecast to lift inflation, intensifying cost-of-living concerns—these dynamics are likely to influence monetary policy expectations and thus GBPUSD.
Updated
The reading that day
NeutralAt the close of the UTC day.
BearishNeutralBullish
It held all day.
The day on the wire
00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00
The band shows the reading through the day; a mark shows where it changed. Each tick is a headline first seen that day.
The reading through the day
- 00:00Neutral
Headlines (16)
First seen on August 16
- New UK cost of living crisis looms with soaring energy bills forecast to lift inflationThe Guardian
- Morgan Stanley says disinflation is here, but risks to 2027 rate outlook remainHellenic Shipping News
Carried over from earlier days
- My Thoughts about those Retail Saleswolfstreet.com
- Is the US Dollar Doomed or is a Correction Looming?ActionForex
- Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodInvestingLive
- Sterling today: Pound rises as dollar weakens on dovish Fed expectationsInvesting.com
- Retail sales slump as consumer spending faltersInvesting.com
- Retail sales slump in July. Cheaper gas and Amazon-Prime hangover are the chief culprits.MarketWatch
- World Cup Hangover Triggers Retail Sales Slump In July, K-Shaped Economy WaningZeroHedge
- GBPUSD moves to new highs going back to May. Breaks away from 50% retracement.InvestingLive
- THINK Ahead: UK inflation and labour market data plus July Fed minutesING Think
- European shares close mostly lower as yields jump; DAX bucks the trendInvestingLive
- British Pound hits three-month high as weak US sales deepen USD slideFXStreet
- US Dollar Weekly Forecast: Fed hawks circle, but weak data clips the Dollar’s wingsFXStreet
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Aug: Stocks finish mixed as yields rise and the dollar fallsInvestingLive
- AI inflation is putting even more pressure on the Fed. Could higher interest rates be next?MarketWatch
Scheduled events
As of
| Event | Forecast | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday, August 16 | ||
| Rightmove HPI m/m | GBP | |
| Monday, August 17 | ||
| Empire State Manufacturing Index | 10.6 | USD |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 33 | USD |
| TIC Long-Term Purchases | 151.4B | USD |
| CBI Industrial Order Expectations | GBP | |
| Tuesday, August 18 | ||
| Claimant Count Change | 11.2K | GBP |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.8% | GBP |
| Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 4.0% | GBP |